The advent of social media, blogs, podcasts and other online forums have resulted in an ever-growing mass of opinion broadcast to everyone, all the time. Every news story, video, minor to major event, is presented with an opportunity to comment on it. Online each photo, quote, thought and event is accompanied by a like button and a space for comment. Even opinions online can be met with approval—or an opinion of the opinion.
A 2018 Pew Research study found that only 26% of U.S. adults could correctly identify five statements they were given as opinions versus considering them facts. An equal number got most or all of them wrong.[1]There is so much opinion, presented constantly, through every major news and social outlet, that the line has become blurred beyond recognition. Opinion has become so overwhelming that mass opinion—mob rule—has become the marker of the day. What most people think often outweighs facts or objective truths on a given subject. The same study revealed that we are more likely to view opinions we happen to agree with as facts, regardless of whether or not they are true.
No matter what your experience and qualifications as a leader, the culture itself has drilled into you the idea that your opinions matters, and that giving your opinions constantly is desired and valuable. Americans’ opinions on the future, world leadership, drug use, religion, same sex relations and smoking have all shifted dramatically in the last 30 years.[2] In this opinion-obsessed environment, how does one person’s thoughts and opinions have value?
Most opinions do not matter. We all know people who talk constantly though they have no clue about what they speak of. They speak of matters outside the experience and knowledge, as if the world itself depended on hearing their open-ended lecture. Though we might want to believe that these opinions, and indeed our own thoughts on a range of subjects, really matter, in truth they do not.
Why is this true? Because neither opinions or perspectives are truth. They are simply viewpoints based on how an individual sees the world, or specific situations, individuals or circumstances around them. Because of this, opinions are constantly changing, shifting, growing, shrinking—they are as fluid as the ocean. Further the way in which we judge collective opinion is most often simply by volume. How many people check the “like” button for this or that, or how many answer this way in a certain poll?
Though this sounds democratic, it is not scientific, and frankly the loudest voices—who often tend to be a small minority of the whole—often carry the day in terms of collective opinion. This is called participation bias, because the people who are most likely to give their opinions disproportionately possess certain beliefs or traits which affect the outcome.[3] Because nearly all “mass opinion” is gathered in an unscientific manner, it is largely biased and unrepresentative of the true mindset of the target population.
Valuable opinions can shape culture. Despite mass opinion bias, we also know that leading thinkers of our time can and do indeed shape the culture. This is done via social influence. When certain individuals share their opinion, it may cause others who respect that opinion to review their beliefs or change their behavior as a result of this interaction.[4]
Perhaps the most notable recent example of social influence would be Dr. Anthony Fauci. He serves as the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and the Chief Medical Advisor to the President. During the pandemic, Fauci emerged as the leading thinker on fighting Covid-19. He had an impressive pedigree, leading research on curing AIDS and other diseases for decades. When he recommended wearing masks to reduce the spread of Covid-19, the entire nation responded by affirming his opinion in virtually every facet of life. Though you could argue its effectiveness or the value of that opinion today, years later, the reality is that Fauci was in a position of social influence, and clearly shaped the culture.
Prospect, an influential British magazine, publishes a list of leading thinkers each year in the fields of politics, social issues, culture, the arts and intellectual pursuits.[5] Their influence on culture relies not on how many Facebook clicks they received, but on a host of factors, not the least of which is temperament, or their ability to engage in the arena of ideas without being angered or offended by differing opinion.
A leader may be able to use his opinions to lead. What a leader may desire from their opinions is the “Fauci Effect”. How might you express opinions in such a way as to see others change their beliefs or behavior as a result? If this is possible, then your opinions would have some value in leadership as they may change others’ direction or shape company or popular culture. First though, consider whether the situation itself warrants an opinion. There are many cases where simply saying nothing is better, wiser.
A leaders’ opinions should be thoughtful and sparse. When you express your opinions publicly, consider only commenting in areas where you have specific experience or expertise. Avoid bland political talk or reviews of your dinner last Friday. If you want your opinions to matter and to influence, then you must speak from your own personal knowledge and narrowly to the area(s) in which you might be considered a respected authority. It is in this paradox—the withholding of one’s opinions in order to create value in them—that social influence might grow.
Former Apple CEO Steve Jobs said, “Your time is limited, so don’t waste it living someone else's life. Don’t be trapped by dogma—which is living with the results of other people's thinking. Don’t let the noise of others' opinions drown out your own inner voice. And most important, have the courage to follow your heart and intuition.”[6] Real opinion-leaders express what they think in order to push their purpose in life forward, not just to hear themselves. They will ask themselves, “Will saying this help me lead?”
When desiring to offer your thoughts on a matter, first listen. If nobody wants to hear what you think, it’s an indicator they are not interested in what you have to say. Earn their ears by earnestly listening to them. A leaders’ opinion need not be the loudest voice in the room, but rather the most reasoned. If you do offer an opinion, be sure to use statements including the word “I”. Your opinions are not facts. Use phrases like “I think…” or “I believe…” or “In my experience…” to qualify what you are saying. Then provide reasons for your point of view. Finally, give examples of how you live and act based on your opinion. This is the final and most important qualifier for opinions—you must live by what you think, or your opinion simply won’t hold up.
[1] https://www.pewresearch.org/journalism/2018/06/18/distinguishing-between-factual-and-opinion-statements-in-the-news/
[2] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-news-poll-in-what-ways-has-public-opinion-changed-over-40-years/
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Participation_bias
[4] https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0078433
[5] https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeltnietzel/2020/07/14/are-these-the-worlds-50-top-thinkers-for-2020/
[6] https://bellomoassociates.com/2019/04/12/whose-opinion-matters-most/
What if there was a kind of cold call that was 100% successful? A call that, every time you made it, something meaningful would occur? A cold call so powerful that a response is guaranteed?