Do you trust statistics? Do you make determinations based on polls, studies or historical data? How do you know those numbers are real and worth basing decisions on them? Big data is a $274 billion global business as of 2022. Nearly half of professionals in the market research industry use data analytics as a primary research method.[1] There are big numbers in gathering numbers. Leaders in virtually every field are obsessed in knowing how much, how many, who, where and when—and extrapolating that out into the future. But for a biblical leader, what value does data really have? Venture capitalist Peter Thiel comments, “Most of ‘big data’ is a fraud because it is really ‘dumb data.’”[2]
Numbers are easily manipulated. The book How to Lie with Statistics by Darrell Huff[3] details specific techniques for making numbers appear to reveal whatever conclusion you desire. Some of these means of falsifying statistics include:
Citing misleading averages which makes numbers appear bigger and better.
Giving precise figures which may appear more reputable, by weren’t originally measured so precisely.
Using percentages to hide numbers and calculations. You can see this in data reduced to “We had a 200% increase in throughput” or “We dropped between two and three points.”
Omitting qualifiers like probable error or degree of significance. An example is cutting zero off a chart, or stretching a graph where the increase or decrease is made to look greater or lesser by chopping off historical numbers (see the data manipulation example below).
Attributing correlation to causation by assuming a factor was a cause when the actual data does not reveal the cause. Someone might say “As you can see from the sales chart, our marketing plan resulted in a 25% increase in sales”—this statement ignores other factors that may have caused the increase, like hiring new sales staff, changing the product pricing, or a rival going out of business.[4]
Don’t lead by data. What does research data have to do with biblical leadership? First, we must remember that data does not necessarily reveal facts. 1 Thessalonians 5:21 reminds us, “But test everything; hold fast what is good.” In other words, don’t allow data to supersede what you know to be good and right in terms of leadership. Data expert Geoffrey Moore recently said, “Without big data analytics, companies are blind and deaf, wandering out onto the web like deer on a freeway.”[5] I respectfully disagree. Data is helpful, but this thought leaves out the intuition, character and right motives of genuine leadership. Just because one has data does not equate into being able to make the proper decision regarding it.
A classic example above of data manipulation. The writer wants to show that the cost of education has risen dramatically while the results have hardly moved. However, the graph has two different types of computations shown on the same graph, at differing scale. And the educational scores themselves are an amalgam of data gathered through different means. To increase supposed authenticity, the data sources are cited. The graph makes the author’s point in ghastly fashion. But on analysis, the data does not confirm this at all. The fine print reveals “missing data” was “extrapolated”. In fact, a graphic can’t show this conclusion, using accurate and accepted statistical methods.
Don’t make data results into goals. British economist Ronald Coase famously said, “Torture the data, and it will confess anything.” More recently the trend in leadership has been to make data itself the goal of decision-making. If last quarter the data shows we grew by 3%, then this quarter we should strive for 4%. If we gain an average of 100 new customers each year, then we should be at 1,500 customers in the next 18 months, marking our 15th anniversary. You can see how data becomes a trend line that we then strive to meet. Investment houses know this is rarely the case, and smartly remind individuals in their advertising: “Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.”
For a biblical leader, data rarely enters into the picture of major decisions. Jeremiah 29:11 promises, “For I know the plans I have for you, declares the Lord, plans for welfare and not for evil, to give you a future and a hope.” If we know God, and our lives are entrusted to Him, then all of our major decisions in life and work are essentially spiritual decisions. The data may tell us one thing. But the Christ-centered leader always asks, “What is God telling me to do?” The data told Noah not to build a giant ship on the premise it might rain in 75 years. The data told Moses not to go up against the Egyptian army. The data told Joshua he could not take the fortified city of Jericho. The data told Jesus’ disciples to hide safely in Jerusalem after His resurrection instead of taking the Gospel to the world. Time and again in Scripture we see God’s leaders basing their decisions off what God would have them do, versus what the information at their disposal may be telling them. A God-driven leader learns to trust God versus trust numbers.
Instead, look to data to reflect leadership. Biblical leadership in the modern age should be data-aware versus data-driven. Having accurate numbers and studying them is helpful. Making decisions solely based on what numbers may or may not reveal is unwise. Statistical analysis however is a helpful means of gauging the results of leadership and decision-making. Futurist and author Alvin Toffler once said, “You can use all the quantitative data you can get, but you still have to distrust it and use your own intelligence and judgment.”
An interesting biblical example of this is found in the early church, recorded in Acts 2. Scripture records of the believers, “And they devoted themselves to the apostles’ teaching and the fellowship, to the breaking of bread and the prayers. And awe came upon every soul, and many wonders and signs were being done through the apostles. And all who believed were together and had all things in common. And they were selling their possessions and belongings and distributing the proceeds to all, as any had need. And day by day, attending the temple together and breaking bread in their homes, they received their food with glad and generous hearts, praising God and having favor with all the people” (Acts 2:42-47a). We read in these verses the various activities of the Christ-followers, meeting together, teaching, serving each other, becoming a community, helping, developing generosity.
No mention of statistics here until the last sentence, “And the Lord added to their number day by day those who were being saved” (Acts 2:47b). The result of their leadership and ministry was the growth of their group numerically. Often today we focus on the numbers first—how do we grow the organization? Grow sales? Grow influence? Grow the bottom line for the quarter? In other words, how to do we make the numbers look like what we want for our result? Here we see leaders focusing on their core purposes and growing themselves. The numbers showed them as effective—but notice too that God was adding to their numbers. One can wonder here if you can attribute their growth to the result of their activities, or to God as an external factor, blessing their spiritual efforts numerically. In biblical leadership, data always reflects, versus drives, leadership decisions.
[1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/254266/global-big-data-market-forecast/
[2] https://www.brainyquote.com/topics/data-quotes
[3] https://www.shortform.com/summary/how-to-lie-with-statistics-summary-darrell-huff
[4] https://www.shortform.com/blog/manipulating-statistics/
[5] https://info.aiim.org/aiim-blog/11-cool-quotes-about-big-data-analytics
Thomas Paine (1737-1809) was an English-born Founding Father of the United States. An inventor and philosopher, he authored Common Sense, a pamphlet that was influential at the start of the American Revolution.